Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 01 2025 18:46:32

AWUS01 KWNH 011846
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-012244-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0842
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 PM EDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Areas affected...portions of the Carolinas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 011844Z - 012244Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are beginning to grow in coverage and
intensity across northeast SC.  Hourly amounts to 3" with local
totals to 5" are possible. At least scattered instances of flash
flooding are expected over partially saturated soils and urban
areas.

Discussion...Thunderstorms slowly growing in coverage across
northeast SC have showed minimal movement as of late.  They are
forming an environment with precipitable water values of ~2.3", ML
CAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg, very near areas with 25+ kt of effective
bulk shear.

The 12z HREF and 06z REFS are quite bullish on the expansion of
this activity across northeast SC and southeast NC, showing 40-50%
chance of 5"+ in the 18-00z period.  Given the available moisture,
hourly amounts to 3" are possible wherever cells merge/train.=20
Given the instability available, instantaneous rain rates of 5"
are also possible.  These amounts would quickly overwhelm urban
environments.  Portions of this region have seen 300%+ of their
average weekly rainfall, leading soils which are partially
compromised.  Flash flood concerns should be at least scattered in
nature, given the above.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!--yThWx5Akq8GZ59TPnIvtnL6bDrMLEWMVW8beyeAtIt3LsR8clINjQW94OJGUVN3UDC=
-rOJ7Fj4SePcULoe4jBuSd8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   36047616 35647538 35107551 34797618 34507675=20
            34307755 33767793 33637860 32957919 32528031=20
            33038098 34678140 35437951 35877741=20

=3D =3D =3D
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