Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1860
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 01 2025 18:09:00

ACUS11 KWNS 011808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011807=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-012000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1860
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Alabama into central and southeast Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011807Z - 012000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across eastern Alabama into
central and southeast Georgia will pose a risk of damaging downburst
winds through late afternoon. The overall severe threat will remain
too limited to warrant watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and echo top trends show
intensifying thunderstorms along a weak surface confluence band
stretching from far southeast AL into southeast GA. Incipient
thunderstorms are also noted across eastern AL/northwest GA along a
weak surface cold front. Although forcing for ascent across the
region remains weak, strong diurnal heating of a weakly capped air
mass is supporting uninhibited near-surface parcel ascent within
these zones of modest low-level ascent. Very weak mid and
upper-level flow over the region will favor a combination of
short-lived single cells and multi-cell clusters, and will largely
limit the potential for a more robust severe weather threat.
However, further heating through late afternoon should allow for
MLCAPE values to reach 2500-3500 J/kg as well as promote 0-2 km
lapse rates of around 7-8 C/km. This thermodynamic environment is
favorable for strong to severe wet downbursts associated with the
deeper, more intense convective cores. While such downbursts
typically produce gusts of 40-55 mph, sporadic and isolated
instances of 60-65 mph winds will be possible - especially if a more
consolidated, cold-pool-driven cluster can become establish through
peak heating.

...Moore/Smith.. 08/01/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6_HwkZ1kv2DmpEM7TIycYSE75VydFppSGPpEx1FIb6bma_epM7N8J5UOw4qOG_RRFelwILxyv=
HBpMntINFQvPnHqo4s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON   31658529 31738576 31978610 32578660 33038690 33578688
            33868676 34038648 34208562 34158481 33928442 33578390
            33308357 33068322 32858284 32678230 32508164 32328119
            32218091 32048083 31878092 31738109 31608130 31608162
            31658529=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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