Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 01 2025 12:52:00 ACUS01 KWNS 011250 SWODY1 SPC AC 011249 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of at least isolated wind damage will be possible across South Carolina and surrounding parts of North Carolina and Georgia. ....High Plains... Extensive upper ridging currently extends from the southern High Plains into Alberta/Saskatchewan, with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs moving eastward/northeastward within this ridging. Westerly/southwesterly flow aloft associated with this ridging is maintaining steep mid-level lapse rates across the Rockies and eastward into the High Plains, where dewpoints will likely be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon. This moderate low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) by late this afternoon. Previously mentioned low-amplitude shortwave troughs coupled with orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain, with these storms then expected to move into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream across the High Plains. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO, contributing to a relatively greater severe potential here versus the remainder of the High Plains. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow across the entire region. However, greater mid-level flow is anticipated from western SD into northeast CO, where a few supercells capable of large hail and potentially even a brief tornado are possible. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and brief tornadoes. ....Carolinas into Georgia... A very moist airmass remain in places from the Southeast into the Carolinas. Recent surface analysis shows low 70s dewpoints through this entire region. Recent RAOBS and mesoanalysis show near 2 inch PW across GA and the Carolinas. Numerous thunderstorms are anticipated as a weak cold front pushes southward/southeastward into the region. Outflow amalgamation may result in some storm clustering, and a locally greater risk for wind damage, but the lack of stronger vertical shear should limit overall updraft longevity and severity. ...Mosier/Bentley.. 08/01/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .