Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 01 2025 05:11:03

AWUS01 KWNH 010509
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-011107-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0839
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
108 AM EDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Areas affected...much of New Mexico, far west Texas, far
southeastern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010507Z - 011107Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues as slow-moving
thunderstorms persist across the discussion area.

Discussion...The flash flood threat across the southern Rockies
and High Plains will continue for at least another 3-6 hours.=20
Latest radar mosaic imagery depicts a couple of clusters of
slow-moving storms - one near Santa Fe, NM and another extending
from southeastern AZ eastward toward the El Paso, TX vicinity.=20
The storms continued to persist amid a pocket of cool air aloft
and mid-level troughing across the state that was likely
continuing to force ascent for isolated to scattered thunderstorm
activity.  Additionally, kinematic fields aloft (with less than 5
knots mean flow aloft) and abundant moisture (1+ inch PW values)
were contributing to wetting rainfall and localized rain rates
exceeding 1 inch/hr at times.  These rates were falling on
sensitive ground conditions and local burn scars, enhancing runoff
and flash flood potential.

The 00Z HREF continues to depict scattered thunderstorm activity
propagating slowly across the discussion area for the next several
hours.  This scenario meshes well with ongoing observations -
especially in northeastern New Mexico where upscale
growth/organization should allow for storms to persist and
propagate slowly southeastward over the next 3-6 hours despite an
unfavorable time of day.  Flash flood potential will likely
continue to be driven by the presence of newer updrafts/storms
near ongoing clusters through at least 11Z/5a MDT or so.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-_6FV_E6lrma9cnl1WhF0DeyHe_lTKVIjdBCFrXT7TcuqrZ9r9OFobKG7wKAuyYz1Wko=
Yt3XD56p21hUJxHswAqdkTE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36750647 36660378 33930346 32000470 31610631=20
            31750817 31270840 31551080 32711117 33290972=20
            34120822 35300739=20

=3D =3D =3D
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