Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 31 2025 23:16:19

AWUS01 KWNH 312315
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-010500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0837
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
714 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Areas affected...Western New Mexico and Southern Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 312313Z - 010500Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing convection will continue for the next several
hours across western New Mexico. Additional flash flooding
possible where storms persist over flood prone areas as rates
exceed 1 inch per hour.

DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing across much of
western New Mexico and along the Front Range of Colorado this
afternoon. A low over northeastern Arizona is increasing the
forcing across western New Mexico, generally supporting the storms
merging into very slow moving clusters. Those storms that have
formed thus-far have a history of producing localized rainfall
rates over 1 inch per hour, resulting in widely scattered
instances of flash flooding. Continued easterly advection of deep
Gulf moisture into the terrain of New Mexico and Colorado along a
frontal boundary in the area will also continue to support
thunderstorm formation and persistence across southern Colorado
and central New Mexico. SPC Mesoanalysis shows CAPE values between
1,000 and 2,000 J/kg across this area, which given the very slow
movement of the storms should allow them to persist into the
evening hours.

HiRes guidance suggests very slow moving storms, likely tied to
the terrain, will persist through about 05Z. With continued
moisture advection, and low FFGs across much of western New Mexico
and southern Colorado, localized areas of flash flooding are
possible. The most likely areas are typical dry washes and local
valleys that drain nearby terrain where storms may be anchored.
For far northern New Mexico and southern Colorado, the Front Range
and adjacent Plains appear to be the area of greatest concern for
additional flash flooding into this evening.

Wegman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9E-uDvIm1Ypv9TYUoQxoZh7bMO9fqbVTihR0p2WpkqZ1ply9HzTafgleznnGviRSV427=
oG8aSRm3E92GD_URoq8-bsQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...MAF...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38360419 37720380 36200433 35850491 35300617=20
            34380583 33690427 32340449 32260581 32170716=20
            31360806 31360953 32180927 33320974 33710955=20
            34760889 35660851 36620769 37010711 37620648=20
            38330546=20

=3D =3D =3D
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