Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1855
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 31 2025 20:04:48

ACUS11 KWNS 312003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312002=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-312200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1855
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Areas affected...parts of southern Pennsylvania...New
Jersey...Delaware...much of Maryland and northern Virginia into the
eastern West Virginia panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 562...

Valid 312002Z - 312200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 562
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity may continue to develop and
intensify across the Greater Washington D.C. into Baltimore
vicinities through 5-6 PM EDT, accompanied by a risk for potentially
damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...The environment across much of the northern Mid
Atlantic, from Greater Philadelphia into the Greater New York City
area, is becoming substantially impacted by convective precipitation
and outflow.  In the wake of this activity, it appears that the
surface front is beginning to advance across and south of the
southern Pennsylvania state border, into a seasonably moist
boundary-layer still supporting sizable CAPE across the eastern West
Virginia panhandle through the Greater Washington D.C./Baltimore
area, where shear remains at least marginally conducive to organized
convective development near the southern fringe of the westerlies.

...Kerr.. 07/31/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7Prs-exG58IVEXCF_CD363f6qfBkMH8M-LdnJ5IWC20J9HYjmqaWFOayzVLOeQU1VYRea-gZ8=
alaI_RyJOMfB0nKxoM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   40077754 40027653 40097524 39737418 38427510 37627613
            37787858 39677877 40077754=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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