Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1853
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 31 2025 19:36:41

ACUS11 KWNS 311936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311936=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-312130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1853
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Areas affected...parts of southwestern Arkansas into northeastern
Texas and northern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 311936Z - 312130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for strong to severe wind gusts may increase
with a cluster of storms spreading toward the Ark-La-Tex through 4-5
PM CDT, before activity tends to weaken to the south and southwest
of the region.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous convective development continues a general
slow south/southwestward propagation, in the presence of weakly
sheared light northerly deep-layer mean flow.  The most recent
flareup southwest through south of Hot Springs has contributed to
further strengthening of an associated cold pool, with 2-hourly
surface pressure rises in excess of 2 mb noted in 19Z observations
at Arkadelphia and a 28 degree F differential in temperature across
the cold pool between Arkadelphia and Texarkana.

Aided by low-level updraft inflow of seasonably high boundary-layer
moisture content characterized by large CAPE, renewed vigorous
thunderstorm development is ongoing near/just ahead of the
southwestward propagating segment of the outflow across southwestern
Arkansas, toward Texarkana, with an expanding area of northward
spreading anvil-level precipitation in its wake.  As this continues
through the next hour or two, it appears possible that
north-northeasterly rear inflow may strengthen/descend and pose
increasing potential for strong to severe gusts across the
Ark-La-Texas vicinity, before the storms encounter more stable
updraft inflow and weaken.

...Kerr/Smith.. 07/31/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-7HNK0392qdYKLilbO7Gcr9KJ5P--XHeY2pC4wAwd-nXKzfNgHvDAhsFdYk_szidtFYBgHNRT=
jqvLcJAEUwjR0bJH7E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34399421 33859364 33299285 32979247 32569315 32779412
            33269479 33859502 34399421=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.