Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jul 31 2025 19:04:31 AWUS01 KWNH 311902 FFGMPD MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-010100- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0835 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 301 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...Central Virginia and much of central North Carolina Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 311900Z - 010100Z SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of slow moving storms along a frontal boundary over central and southwestern Virginia will precede the passage of a cold front later this evening in this same area, causing additional storms. Rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour are likely to result in additional flash flooding. DISCUSSION... Multiple boundaries demarcated by line segments of slow moving storms are developing across central Virginia this afternoon. These storms have a history of producing flash flooding, with local rates as high as 3 inches per hour. Thus-far these highest rainfall rates have been occurring where stationary storms are forming along terrain, generally west of I-81 in central Virginia. Most of the storms have organized into lines that are slow-moving, frequently getting hung up producing localized areas of much higher rainfall totals, and generally training/multiple rounds moving over the same areas. All of this supports both additional storm development and resultant flash flooding. Terrain such as the Blue Ridge may also locally act as a focus for developing storms, which would locally enhance the flash flooding threat as the terrain focuses the heavy rainfall into narrow valleys quickly. The storms are moving into an extremely favorable environment for additional development, both along the already formed lines, and for new cells to form ahead of the lines. SPC Mesoanalysis shows over 3,000 J/kg of CAPE over much of central and southeastern Virginia, 5-10 kts southwesterly moisture advection, supporting replenishment of the moisture lost by the storms to rainfall, and PWATs as high as 2.2 inches. As the storms move over urban centers such as Richmond and Lynchburg over the next few hours, small stream and urban flooding will be likely if cores of heavier rainfall move over those cities and their suburbs. Wegman ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4Rd_mQAyfRbf6ZWYKTPXdVjzwio5hN6X9xdX2OUFcHyddvcYgCxbxzvaIegbxd1Sz_CW= -O3SRD9lVrmZMb7qzG7TOdw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...LWX...RAH...RLX...RNK... ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC... LAT...LON 38547655 38367632 37957619 37307625 36847705=20 36767772 36547904 36397985 36018052 35788161=20 36268165 36838123 37458084 37738035 38357972=20 38197944 38097912 38087880 38257769 38447692=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .