Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jul 31 2025 06:01:58 ACUS01 KWNS 310601 SWODY1 SPC AC 310600 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of mainly damaging winds, are possible across the Mid-Atlantic and Arkansas during the afternoon. Severe wind and hail producing storms are also expected across the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. ....Synopsis... An upper trough will traverse the Northeast while an upper ridge persists over the Central U.S. and broad upper troughing becomes established over the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon with the passage of an embedded mid-level impulse within the broader trough, which will encourage widespread strong thunderstorm development. Across portions of Arkansas and immediate adjacent areas, a weak impulse will support the development of at least scattered strong thunderstorms amid ample buoyancy. Across the northern Rockies into the northern and central High Plains, an embedded mid-level impulse will result in the initiation of several thunderstorm clusters, which will move over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Given adequate buoyancy and shear in these regions, strong to severe storms are possible. ....Mid Atlantic... Thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F, and quickly translate eastward given 40+ kts of 500 mb westerly flow. Surface dewpoints will reach well into the 70s F, supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates. The strong instability and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will encourage the development of strong multicells and perhaps a transient supercell. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though an instance or two of hail are possible, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. ....Arkansas... By early afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop amid strong heating and minimal MLCINH. While lapse rates will be modest, surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F will boost MLCAPE to around 4000 J/kg. Despite weak shear, strong pulse-cellular and multicellular clusters will develop with wet downburst potential, the strongest of which may produce a couple of damaging gusts. ....Parts of the Northern Rockies into the Central High Plains... By mid-afternoon, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop atop the higher terrain of the Rockies, driven by a glancing mid-level impulse and orographic lift. These storms will progress eastward toward the northern/central High Plains amid 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates (contributing to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 20-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show hodographs with modest elongation and some curvature, suggesting that both multicellular complexes and supercells are possible. The stronger storms will support a severe hail/wind threat, with the best chance of hail being with supercells. ...Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .