Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1851
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 30 2025 23:05:37

ACUS11 KWNS 302305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302304=20
WYZ000-310130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1851
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Areas affected...much of central into eastern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 302304Z - 310130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage into central Wyoming this
evening, with locally damaging gusts and area of hail.

DISCUSSION...Storms have increased in intensity over north-central
WY with hail cores noted, with additional activity across southwest
WY recently. The easterly low-level flow regime has maintained a
relatively moist air mass into central WY, with MUCAPE in excess of
1500 J/kg. Mid and high level winds are not particularly strong, but
directional changes with height are resulting in 35-45 kt effective
deep-layer shear across the region.

As convection accrues over north-central WY, and eventual outflow
push south/southeastward is possible, while activity farther south
may yield northeast outflow surges. The end result may be colliding
boundaries and additional development, with locally severe gusts
along with areas of hail. The majority of the activity may remain
marginally severe, and therefore a watch may not be needed.

...Jewell/Thompson.. 07/30/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_xt8_BvnoPGK_3pqxFAUJ8TydO_Me6S8OUZqz_kXrngCqEmRy1hD-RKn_noJeBB2KwRHYNuuO=
vx_aQj-JzGGtSNMKIc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON   44220795 44220673 44020561 43480481 42760446 42340441
            41790467 41620552 42040659 42190836 42440916 42690936
            43400938 43680909 44220795=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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