Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1848
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 30 2025 18:11:03

ACUS11 KWNS 301811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301810=20
COZ000-302015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1848
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Areas affected...Colorado Front Range

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 301810Z - 302015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms capable of isolated occurrences of
severe hail or severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon
across the Colorado Front Range into portions of the Eastern
Colorado Plains. Given the localized nature of any severe threat,
weather watch issuance is not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing over the
Central and Front Range of the Rocky Mountains has resulted in
widespread thunderstorm development that is expected to continue and
persist into eastern Colorado. With most unstable CAPE only reaching
500-1000 J/kg and a relative dearth of deep-layer vertical shear,
there is not much environmental support for widespread organized
severe convection. However, with freezing levels near the
surface-based parcel LFC heights, and inverted-V boundary layer
profiles evident in proximity soundings, some isolated incidents of
<=3D 1.25 in hail and severe wind gusts (largely <=3D 60 MPH) are
possible. Some locally higher wind gusts could occur if any
convection develops leading-edge outflow or shows signs of transient
organization into linear clusters.

...Halbert/Smith.. 07/30/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7UzsJq5tl0jEr9f3VQ3n0PadmX0K83fWvDAn8OmoFKPfOeJixoRxLQDMfxkl0DY-hR8edYBMy=
oh3wDFQSdOYHSTuefM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...GJT...

LAT...LON   38280624 38610643 39130647 39550639 40240652 40370660
            40570679 40730686 40870678 40950653 40950630 40970587
            40970515 40340482 39830463 39430451 38960456 38360488
            38160524 38040556 38040600 38190615 38280624=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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