Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1847
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 30 2025 17:03:15

ACUS11 KWNS 301703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301702=20
INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-301930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1847
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Areas affected...parts of south central/eastern Illinois into
northwestern Indiana and southwestern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 301702Z - 301930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms may undergo gradual
intensification with increasing potential for locally strong to
severe wind gusts while advancing eastward around 20-30 kt, into and
through mid to late afternoon (2-4 PM CDT/3-5 PM EDT).  It is still
not clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends will be
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development along a modest eastward
propagating convective cold pool has undergone recent renewed
intensification, likely aided by easterly low-level updraft inflow
of destabilizing boundary-layer air characterized by seasonably high
moisture content (including mid/upper 70s surface dew points).  The
boundary-layer moisture may be contributing to CAPE in excess of
2000 J/kg, forecast soundings indicate that lapse rates in
mid/upper-levels are modest to weak.=20=20

Although a belt of southwesterly flow on the order of 30-40 kts in
the 700-500 mb layer may be contributing to at least moderately
strong deep-layer shear, deeper-layer mean flow remains a rather
modest to weak 15-25 kts.  Still, the shear and forcing for ascent
associated with a supporting upstream mid-level trough may be
sufficient to maintain ongoing activity through this afternoon.

Gradually, further insolation, boundary-layer warming and steepening
of low-level lapse rates could contribute to further intensification
of convection development, with possible developing embedded
mesoscale cyclonic circulations and a strengthening cold pool,
accompanied by increasing potential for locally strong to severe
surface gusts.

...Kerr/Smith.. 07/30/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-oR9UzuH_7U-nWZcTh6pFYZHztKwEM_gmhBVpuRPkiLlIrH7Hx4qfeWs8s0e_U1C9g08W4xjP=
EzylQPD2D2lhtNgCOc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   41768740 41838540 40718550 38748726 38348881 38878987
            39638908 40318882 41768740=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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