Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1846
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 30 2025 16:02:28

ACUS11 KWNS 301602
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301601=20
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-301900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1846
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Areas affected...central Maine...portions of northern New Hampshire
and Vermont

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 301601Z - 301900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity developing over the next
few hours may increasingly pose a risk for small to marginally
severe hail and localized potentially damaging wind gusts by 3-5 PM
EDT.

DISCUSSION...A corridor of stronger, but modest, destabilization is
underway across parts of southeastern Ontario and adjacent Quebec
through portions of central Maine.  This is occurring in response to
continuing insolation, beneath the southern periphery of a broad
mid-level cold pool associated with upper troughing slowly digging
across the eastern Canadian provinces.  Forecast soundings suggest
that relatively warm air associated with broad, increasingly
suppressed, ridging further aloft may limit the magnitude of
developing CAPE, but thermodynamic profiles may still be
sufficiently cool and unstable in mid-levels to support a risk for
small to marginally severe hail.

Although low-level wind fields are rather modest, deep-layer shear
associated with a westerly jet in mid/upper-levels is strong.  Flow
on the order of 30-50 kt appears as low as the 700-500 layer,
contributing to mean flow around 25-30 kts in the lowest 6 km AGL.=20
This may gradually support modest east-southeast storm motions, and
potential for locally strong to severe surface gusts, as low-level
lapse rates continue to steepen and thunderstorm activity
intensifies in peak afternoon destabilization.

Deepening convective development is already underway off the higher
terrain west of Houlton through northwest of Bangor, upstream into
the upper St. Lawrence Valley.  This likely will strengthen with the
initiation of scattered thunderstorm activity during the next few
hours.

...Kerr/Smith.. 07/30/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8YMOtLfESgxk15qCOFlR1XosYqR4RL-4T155SsI7umMb06_304StRKj1bpeJP98-k_OEcT6Ph=
-ifAZZdDovN_lxLuOY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON   45696719 44976870 44657152 44657252 45467339 45887244
            46097044 46506854 46316779 45696719=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.