Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 30 2025 08:16:34

AWUS01 KWNH 300815
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-301400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0829
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
413 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Areas affected...Far Southeast NE...Far Northwest MO...Southern
and Eastern IA...Northern IL...Far Southern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300813Z - 301400Z

SUMMARY...A mature MCS continues to advance eastward across the
Midwest early this morning with heavy rainfall rates. Additional
isolated areas of flash flooding will continue to be a threat.

DISCUSSION...A strong MCS continues to advance off to the east
across far eastern NE, and large areas of western and central IA,
with a northeastward extension of the activity nosing into
northeast IA and far southwest WI. The convection continues to be
focusing along a stationary frontal zone where strong instability
and a corridor of favorable moisture convergence remains pooled
along it.

MLCAPE values across southern and eastern IA remain as high as
2500+ J/kg, and this coupled with PWs of 1.75 to 2 inches
continues to support rainfall rates as high as 1.5 to 2.5
inches/hour.

Some of the cloud tops are beginning to gradually warm a bit which
is suggestive that the MCS is probably past peak intensity.
However, given the size of the convective mass, lingering areas of
instability, and concerns for locally repeating convective
cell-activity, some additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches
will be possible going through the early morning hours as the MCS
advances east. These rains will impact areas of far northwest MO,
southern and eastern IA, and least some portions of northern IL
and far southern WI. This is supported overall by the latest
HREF/REFS guidance and the HRRR/RRFS solutions.

The antecedent conditions are generally quite moist, and these
additional rains over the next few hours may still result in
concerns for isolated areas of flash flooding. This will include
potential for some localized urban flooding.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8Yl0wb0JxPKUXMAA1rrtCkLsfSZFvASONQBjEixUpxgeireI7v_pC5z0H4GHPuovarv5=
9YDWbvZqw4M_kG-R_r94yYk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LOT...MKX...OAX...
TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   43088878 42638775 41648800 40759075 40189316=20
            39729589 40129694 40789690 41339617 41889497=20
            42519327 42979149=20

=3D =3D =3D
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