Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jul 30 2025 05:42:02 ACUS01 KWNS 300540 SWODY1 SPC AC 300538 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ....SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ....Synopsis... A large upper low/trough will exist over eastern Canada, with a belt of strong upper-level winds across the Northeast. Meanwhile, upper highs will exist over FL and AZ/NM, with a weak upper trough affecting the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will stretch from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes, with a leading cold front pushing into northern Mid Atlantic region during the afternoon. The western extension of this front, south of the surface high, will stretch across parts of the Midwest and into the central Plains through 00Z. Ahead/south of this front, a moist air mass will remain in place with 60s to 70s F dewpoints, with daytime heating aiding destabilization and scattered storm development. ....Northeast... A narrow plume of modest instability will develop with daytime heating ahead of the cold front. A midlevel temperature gradient will exist across the region, with 500 mb temperatures from -10 C southern areas and approaching -15 C over northern ME. Deep-layer shear near 50 kt will result in lengthy straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Hail appears to be the primary issue with the strongest cells, but overall severe coverage looks to be isolated. ....Southern MT...WY...CO... Minimal upper ridging will remain over the Rockies ahead of the western trough, and midlevel temperatures will be rather cool. Daytime heating combined with 50s F dewpoints into MT, central WY and toward the Front Range will support scattered strong to locally severe storms during the afternoon over the higher terrain. Both marginal hail and severe gusts will be possible, especially over WY. ....Mid MO/MS Valley... Storms are forecast to be ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into IA. Veering winds around 850 mb as well as the southward sinking front with outflow should allow for a continuation of this activity into IL and eventually MO, where clusters of storms may produce locally strong to damaging gusts. Shear will be weak, and therefore the overall threat most likely localized. Some of this activity may reach into IN by evening. ...Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/30/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .