Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1842
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 30 2025 02:45:50

ACUS11 KWNS 300244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300243=20
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-300445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1842
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0943 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Areas affected...Far Southeast Montana...Northeast Wyoming...Western
South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 556...558...

Valid 300243Z - 300445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 556, 558
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue for a few more hours
from northeast Wyoming into western South Dakota. Isolated large
hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-res radar imagery from Rapid City, South
Dakota shows a small cluster of severe storms in far southeastern
Montana. These storms are located within an upslope regime near an
axis of low-level moisture where surface dewpoints are in the lower
to mid 60s F. This is contributing to moderate instability, with the
RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Over the next
couple of hours, short-term model forecasts move the storms
southeastward across far northeast Wyoming and into western South
Dakota, with convective coverage gradually increasing. RAP forecast
soundings to the north of Rapid City have 0-6 km shear of 35 to 40
knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment
should continue to support a threat for supercells with severe gusts
and isolated large hail. Intense multicell line segments could also
produce strong to severe wind gusts.

...Broyles.. 07/30/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!59VA8rlj4tNS1pCCHr1czY4x1s33QK8kcDO_CbPAzfYXF9bkL7qdF24o47vWRC0ICcYWj7APQ=
8UYrVrSlFsvOoiGwpU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON   45110291 45000226 44680204 44170196 43760221 43680280
            43680405 43780451 44080495 44530509 44800484 45000430
            45110291=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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