Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 30 2025 01:05:53

AWUS01 KWNH 300104
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-300700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0826
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
904 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Areas affected...southwestern NM and adjacent portions of West TX
and far southeastern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300100Z - 300700Z

Summary...Short term (1-2 hour) localized totals of 2"+ may lead
to isolated instances of flash flooding through the evening.

Discussion...A narrow line of thunderstorms along the terrain of
the San Francisco Mountains and Black Range of AZ/NM and an active
cluster of thunderstorms south of the NM/TX border may lead to
localized instances of flash flooding this evening across portions
of southwestern NM and adjacent West TX and far southeastern AZ.
These storms are occurring within a broad region of low-level
convergence, where tropospheric moisture is near record levels
(PWs of 1.0-1.7", and the max being near an all-time record per
ELP sounding climatology) with a pocket of instability (SBCAPE
1250-2500 J/kg) still lingering following peak daytime heating.
While shear is somewhat lacking (less than 20 kts of effective
bulk shear) for storm longevity, the conversion of these two
clusters of convection could allow for localized instances of
flash flooding with short-term (1-2 hour) totals of 2"+ possible
(per 18z HREF and 12z REFS exceedance probs of 20-30%, clustered
mostly near the NM international border).

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7qVpzUKkfEPOUSxeQkF6kvOP0-GugpTdngcBT_BsRHhyLn3fv5h0V3IvbJHbk1ELci1P=
eEE_8dIz1ieXdyVCf8edPS0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   34200850 33940816 33460790 33090760 32890706=20
            32540565 31620545 30940619 31000814 31180888=20
            31510945 32120999 33331051 33440907=20

=3D =3D =3D
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