Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 29 2025 22:23:57

AWUS01 KWNH 292223
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-300330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0825
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
623 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern CO...northwest
KS...south-central NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292220Z - 300330Z

Summary...1-2"/hr rates to continue, occasionally training and
repeating locally. Isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding are possible.

Discussion...Thunderstorms are rapidly proliferating across the
Central High Plains this afternoon, in the vicinity of a broad
southwest-to-northeast frontal zone and near the base of an
associated upper-level trough. The mesoscale environment is
otherwise characterized by plentiful instability (SBCAPE 1000-4000
J/kg), anomalously high tropospheric moisture content (0.9-1.7"
PWs, near the max moving average per LBF sounding climatology),
and effective bulk shear of 20-35 kts.

Storms will continue to proliferate this afternoon with stronger
cores capable of 1-2"/hr (or locally even higher) totals, per
recent MRMS estimates in the Pueblo area. So far hi-res CAMs have
done a poor job anticipating and handling the ongoing convection
(including with the placement of initial cells, which has
generally been farther south than modeled), but even so the 18z
HREF indicates the potential for localized 2"+ amounts (per 40-km
neighborhood probabilities for 2" exceedance of 20-60%, highest
over portions of NE). Storms over southeast CO are likely to
decrease in coverage abruptly this evening (less shear for storm
longevity), while activity is more likely to persist and grow
upscale over NE and eventually propagate north and east into the
Central Plains (likely requiring additional MPDs later tonight).
Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible.=20

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-Ab2becOICrseDOGzuIFlOOFmQ454Q1kImXQ0WGEof7aQOW4z_IDjVEgqz0K-gZD4aLe=
I52p1ApYoQtJjWjcSVRHOg4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   42090039 41979940 41399891 40399895 39209933=20
            38560078 37700237 37360334 37430463 38030511=20
            38650481 38960448 39460380 40010309 40520254=20
            40960194 41500131 41890098=20

=3D =3D =3D
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