Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 29 2025 07:33:42

ACUS03 KWNS 290732
SWODY3
SPC AC 290731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

....Discussion...
Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central
CONUS on Thursday. Some thunderstorm activity is possible along a
cold front which is forecast to move south into the
Kansas/Oklahoma/Arkansas vicinity. However, building heights aloft
and very weak flow beneath the ridge should limit storm
intensity/coverage along the front.

To the east of the building ridge, widespread thunderstorm activity
is expected east of the Mississippi with neutral heights and
moderate to strong instability. Despite the coverage of storms
within this unstable environment, storm organization remains
questionable due to weak lapse rates and very weak shear. Sporadic
isolated water-loaded downdrafts within a 2+" PWAT environment may
result in a few damaging wind gusts, but there is no clear region
where the environment may be most favored. At this time, it appears
a very isolated, unorganized threat is most likely from the
Southeast into the Carolinas.

The best potential for a more focused zone of severe storms may be
across portions of Virginia into the mid-Atlantic where slightly
stronger mid-level flow will be present and the southward moving
surface front may provide additional focus for storms. No
probabilities are warranted at this time, but they may be needed at
a later time.

...Bentley.. 07/29/2025

$$

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