Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1831
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 29 2025 05:54:22

ACUS11 KWNS 290554
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290553=20
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-290730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1831
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Areas affected...eastern IA...northwest IL...southwest WI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 555...

Valid 290553Z - 290730Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 555
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe gusts should diminish in the
next couple hours as an MCS from northeast to central Iowa spreads
east. An additional WW appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Deep convective cores within the MCS across the Upper
Midwest have now become confined from northeast to central Iowa.
Northern parts of this short-line segment trail behind outflow from
leading convection in southwest/central WI. Still, this MCS is
crossing the MLCAPE gradient, modulated by last night's MCS in the
same region. It is plausible that another swath of severe gusts may
yet occur with a small-scale bow/surge across northeast IA towards
the WI/IL border area. But overall trends and recent CAM guidance
suggest the wind threat will diminish in the next couple hours.

...Grams/Hart.. 07/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7YVYAekN1MnO-W5drUfMSCW1HEM8c3cKc0fc4oLoc4zzkuJ8ZbBMHLN_-z3zDjUf_yzapzcZb=
_lBvqbRRJ2J_NnBzsI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43419235 43519168 43559018 43348970 42528933 42098941
            41998945 41748979 41639039 41639117 41689186 41779256
            42009323 42189343 43419235=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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