Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 29 2025 04:19:15

AWUS01 KWNH 290419
FFGMPD
MTZ000-290730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0823
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1218 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Areas affected...South-Central MT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290418Z - 290730Z

SUMMARY...A few supercell thunderstorm clusters over south-central
MT may produce some additional localized flash flooding concerns
over the next few hours. This will include a threat to the
Billings, MT vicinity where urban flooding impacts may occur.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery shows a few
supercell thunderstorm clusters organizing and tending to expand
in coverage over portions of south-central MT. The convection is
being facilitated by moist and convergent low-level flow within a
moderately unstable airmass characterized by MUCAPE values of 1000
to 1500 J/kg.

Some nearby vort energy traversing central MT is also yielding at
least some modest forcing. Low-level orographic forcing/lift over
southern MT is also playing a role in helping to generate some of
the convection on a small scale.

Rainfall rates with some of the ongoing supercell activity is
reaching 1.5+ inches/hour, and with some concerns at least over
the next 2 to 3 hours for some cell-mergers and repeating
cell-activity, there may be some storm total amounts that reach 2
to 3+ inches.

Given the high rainfall rates, some additional areas of flash
flooding will be possible. This will include the potential for
urban flooding impacts to the Billings metropolitan area.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5dcAEINS_39NSUpC_KQ2lSwkjmLgNLI2a3FuuB4OnfBdNkp9NCHqBKsSbduDmfZxDneW=
TXNXrIsgbnwb0iHN3Vnv9mk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON   46430720 46180690 45760701 45310799 45220893=20
            45470942 45790940 46200868 46410796=20

=3D =3D =3D
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