Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1829
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 29 2025 03:35:50

ACUS11 KWNS 290335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290334=20
MTZ000-290430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1829
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern into eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 290334Z - 290430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail may accompany ongoing
storms in temporally extended Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551. A
severe gust is also possible with decaying storms over eastern MT.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have recently developed over
south-central MT behind an outflow boundary, where severe hail has
been reported. In this region, strong flow aloft is contributing to
over 60 kts of effective bulk shear, which may support continued
supercell structures and an associated severe hail risk for at least
a couple more hours. Farther to the northeast, a loosely organized
line of likely decaying storms persists over eastern MT, and a
severe gust is possible with this complex.

...Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!60dJ4JxIqoTH1o575_iXMRC2VMHj4TIv92hFE-lEAttqzr-nTm91w-WNi3EqUXxfU4cuOf-M0=
KwE67sdm0Aq1TXzAlM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   45570985 46090859 47180725 47760694 47580568 47030532
            46340575 45850670 45570767 45300885 45250969 45570985=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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