Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1828
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 29 2025 02:41:12

ACUS11 KWNS 290239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290239=20
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-290445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1828
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Areas affected...Southern Minnesota...Far Southeast South
Dakota...Far Northeast Nebraska...Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553...554...

Valid 290239Z - 290445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553, 554
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across southern
Minnesota and northwest Iowa over the next couple of hours. Severe
gusts and hail will be the primary threats. Gusts over 85 mph will
be possible. Weather watch issuance will be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows an MCS from
south-central Minnesota extending southwestward into far northwest
Iowa. The strongest part of the MCS is located between Sioux Falls
and Sioux City, where indications suggest that a cold pool is
starting to organize. From this part of the MCS, a bowing line
segment is expected to continue forming, moving southeastward along
a sharp gradient of strong instability. This severe line segment
should affect parts of northwest and central Iowa over the next few
hours. Along the track of this severe linear MCS, widespread
damaging wind gusts may occur, with the strongest wind gusts near
the apex of the bowing line segment. Significant wind gusts will be
likely.

...Broyles.. 07/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7Wvw6juNZLA-e4z-xK43E7yp0V4gpUtnoR9sFfVfwvX4DDZOj7rkr_bmBLuQ9O7h8i5kiwhPk=
HZxneGznIX1Qkt4XIY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   44039219 44299352 44289496 43909652 43229708 42659717
            42299655 41649470 41349367 41369279 41989222 43169187
            44039219=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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