Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1827
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 29 2025 01:15:37

ACUS11 KWNS 290114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290113=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-290315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1827
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0813 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Areas affected...Minnesota...Far Northwest Iowa...Southeast South
Dakota...Far Northeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553...554...

Valid 290113Z - 290315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553, 554
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue over the next few
hours from central Minnesota southwestward into far southeast South
Dakota and northwest Iowa. Wind damage and hail will be the primary
threats, although a brief tornado could also occur.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows an MCS located
from west-central Minnesota southwestward into southeast South
Dakota and far northern Nebraska. The MCS is located to the north
and northeast of a pocket of very strong instability, centered over
far northeast Nebraska. The MCS is expected to move southeastward
along a sharp gradient of instability into south-central Minnesota
and northwest Iowa over the next few hours. A severe threat will
likely continue with the stronger cells. Wind damage and hail will
be the primary threats. The greatest severe threat may be over far
southwest Minnesota, northwest Iowa and northeast Nebraska where the
RAP shows the strongest instability. MLCAPE in that area is
estimated to be in the 5500 to 6500 J/kg range. If a cold pool can
organize and move quickly southeastward, then a swath of wind damage
will be possible this evening. In that case, severe wind gusts in
the 75 to 90 mph would be possible.

...Broyles.. 07/29/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!94wPsRHzP2sqW8g6iZrEvziDI7qY8PWrSr6k12VAntSsf5css5vEbT9f-M2gW9voVfCY6Byn5=
qV83s8RHJDEKubnHUE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

LAT...LON   45819405 45649361 45289332 44769349 43989442 43309530
            42589628 42109715 41979784 42209855 42569885 43279883
            43859819 45099637 45789524 45919462 45819405=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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