Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 29 2025 01:46:45

AWUS01 KWNH 290145
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-290543-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0822
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
944 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Areas affected...parts of central/southern Minnesota and western
Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290143Z - 290543Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are possible over the next few
hours - especially in/near Minneapolis/St. Paul.

Discussion...Over the past couple hours, intense convection has
exhibited upscale growth into a forward-propagating convective
complex that was moving eastward across central Minnesota at
around 30-40 knots.  The forward-propagating nature of the storms
has limited the temporal extent of heavier rainfall at any one
spot, although areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates have still managed to
materialize at times.  The airmass downstream of the convection is
quite moist and unstable (1.5 inch PW values, 1000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE - highest with southwestward extent).  The airmass is
promoting intense, efficient updrafts and heavy rainfall despite
relatively fast movement.

The overall extent/coverage of flash flood potential is a bit
uncertain, although impending movement of heavy rainfall over
urban areas in/near Minneapolis/St. Paul raises concern for at
least isolated flash flood potential through 04Z.  FFG thresholds
are near 1 inch/hr (locally lower near MSP) and could be exceeded
occasionally - especially if localized training/convective mergers
manage to become more pronounced.  The peak flash flood threat for
the Minneapolis area should begin in the 0230/0400Z (930p-11p CDT)
timeframe.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9b6ZazHsKnl7Ehblrsb9oBcuXRth11g5rxeF9IyUwSdUVTJAMO31S_sC5Gx5gb62VBla=
VcgQYFYgvZKajc7ymoYOY_s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   45929316 45719103 44489044 43669066 43669297=20
            44009536 44859557 45809460=20

=3D =3D =3D
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