Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jul 29 2025 00:39:06 ACUS01 KWNS 290037 SWODY1 SPC AC 290036 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ....SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ....SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ....MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ...Jewell.. 07/29/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .