Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 29 2025 00:28:12

AWUS01 KWNH 290028
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-290623-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0821
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
827 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Areas affected...central/southern New Mexico and far west Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290023Z - 290623Z

Summary...Slow-moving thunderstorms continue to produce areas of
heavy rainfall across the discussion area.  Flash flooding will
remain possible through at least 05Z/11p MDT tonight.

Discussion...The flash flood threat continues across portions of
New Mexico and far west Texas.  Deep convection continues to move
slowly westward across the area.  The storms remain positioned on
the northern periphery of a mid-level shortwave trough just west
of El Paso, TX.  Meanwhile, higher PW air/instability has migrated
west of the Continental Divide, with 1-1.6 inch PW values and 1000
J/kg MLCAPE across the entire region - especially in areas that
have not yet been convectively overturned.  Spots of 1-1.5 inch/hr
rain rates continue with the stronger convection.  These rates
could cause excessive runoff/flash flooding especially atop burn
scars and other sensitive/terrain-favored areas.

Thunderstorms across the discussion area are likely to begin to
weaken 1) after dark and 2) in areas that have been convectively
overturned.  Flash flooding remains possible generally through 05Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7aDWDhCgF15KaSTr5Cv3Zeg4HkOOUZGo2L1mog245_Xd6YNLU1-hfepTSX85FGX-Ki23=
RmojdQprtLDOhszrVsmCLMQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   35590557 34080434 31380355 29940311 29560369=20
            30450511 31590653 31610799 31310820 31320902=20
            32940903 35250737=20

=3D =3D =3D
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