Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 28 2025 22:33:13

AWUS01 KWNH 282232
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-290430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0820
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
631 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Areas affected...eastern Ohio, far western Pennsylvania, far
northern West Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 282230Z - 290430Z

Summary...At least isolated instances of flash flooding are
possible as a complex of storms currently near Cleveland migrates
southeastward through the discussion area.

Discussion...A complex over western Lake Erie earlier this
afternoon has exhibited upscale growth while migrating toward far
northern Ohio/areas near/west of Cleveland over the past hour.=20
The complex is well organized and may persist beyond what several
of convection-allowing model solutions are suggesting.  Meanwhile,
isolated to scattered cells have been merging into the complex
from the south and fostering locally high rain rates exceeding 2
inches/hr.  The high rain rates aren't a particular surprise given
the moist/buoyant pre-convective airmass (2+ inches PW, 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE) supporting the storms.

The overall complex will shift southeastward along a weak
baroclinic zone/surface trough extending from near Cleveland to
near Parkersburg, VW.  The storms will also encounter increasingly
sensitive ground conditions due to terrain/antecedent wetness.=20
FFGs near 1 inch/hr could be readily exceeded given the abundantly
moist airmass.  At least isolated instances of flash flooding are
possible in this scenario.  Although uncertain, there may be just
enough buoyancy/shear for the complex to hold together and reach
far northern West Virginia through 02Z/10P EDT or so.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!96D0YjDKo9ATXv7osKG7Mhx5-5ovpo3P5VHPtHL2z2LEpm7KiEVWfrusEO2mBGrL6q2X=
X-KewrgQg8BhKxs8ixr2eYA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   41588176 41298058 39947998 39128078 39058239=20
            40938327 41438267=20

=3D =3D =3D
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