Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1825
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 28 2025 22:29:17

ACUS11 KWNS 282229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282228=20
MTZ000-290000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1825
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Areas affected...portions of central Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551...

Valid 282228Z - 290000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail will remain possible with the stronger,
supercellular storms. Severe gusts may also accompany the stronger
storms that may merge.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells and multicellular clusters have
developed across central MT over the past few hours, and current
MRMS mosaic radar trends depict an increase in both coverage and
intensity. MRMS MESH suggests that at least marginally severe hail
is falling with these storms, and 22Z mesoanalysis depicts over 1500
J/kg MLCAPE and 50+ kts of effective bulk shear preceding the
storms. A such, severe hail will remain a concern for at least a few
more hours. There is some chance that the storms may merge to form
an MCS. Should this occur, the risk for severe gusts will increase.

...Squitieri.. 07/28/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7vWajAJeQ1oCW5kTbZVuAddDZPujDwZsTtyrfJopSvEEPOBUfooiJTYt6LwiQvYGiyWbOn7GG=
4kRhK5Gb1ISDTqAS04$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   47531224 47960863 47770694 47330633 46800673 46460782
            46270903 46211018 46201070 46311109 46571183 47531224=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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