Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1823
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 28 2025 18:07:46

ACUS11 KWNS 281807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281807=20
MTZ000-282000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1823
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Areas affected...central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 281807Z - 282000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected across portions of
central Montana this afternoon by 19-20z, with increasing threat for
large hail and damaging wind.

DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is observed in visible satellite
across the high terrain in central Montana. MLCIN remains in place
across much of central/western Montana but insolation under mostly
sunny skies should erode this over the next couple of hours. MLCAPE
around 1000 J/kg and deep layer shear around 30-40 kts will support
supercell modes initially. Linear hodographs will support potential
for splitting cells capable of large to very large hail and damaging
wind. Some clustering and building along outflow is likely by the
late afternoon, with potential for increase in the damaging wind
threat. A watch will likely be needed to cover this severe potential
in the next couple of hours.

...Thornton/Thompson.. 07/28/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-G_pI17ZtUPRRrrBOKrIqbhLQqKJLLXSSKUPZLMx_tT4rqVKk8RkRFkygAozUa1LmksJbj3Xf=
MElHR1y_CWkW5H2I3w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   46441136 46761221 47041239 47441240 47691208 47991054
            48011017 48080908 47980781 47500689 46800636 46110655
            45890673 45420788 45690939 45951005 46201081 46441136=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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