Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1821
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 28 2025 12:21:50

ACUS11 KWNS 281221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281221=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-281415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1821
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0721 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Areas affected...parts of western/central ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 281221Z - 281415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A persistent supercell or two may yield a confined swath
of large hail and strong gusts into late morning. Monitoring for
possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A couple elevated supercells are ongoing across
southwest/west-central ND, along and just north of I-94. Despite a
lack of reported severe thus far, strong westerly speed shear above
3 km (now sampled by the BIS VWP and 12Z observed sounding) has
sustained persistent organizational structures as these cells spread
across the MT/ND border. This elevated activity is likely to persist
into midday along the buoyancy gradient across western ND. Large
hail and strong gusts should be the primary hazards. Severe wind may
increase if flanking convection can form along the outflow into a
destabilizing airmass over SD. But ongoing low clouds/fog in the
swath of richest low-level moisture casts uncertainty on whether
that scenario may occur soon or later today.

...Grams/Hart.. 07/28/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9g7-rpLGuVdnz--wYpXXOT2dceIHPywAH2QmsWOOO5I19WH7uPNsqC3GLRxbNtYA3yf4bYM1J=
ajun1mzXCfqP_-teEw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   47340332 47640223 47670131 47700051 47189994 46150002
            45820094 45830219 46140321 46360389 46800394 47340332=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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