Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 28 2025 08:52:54

ACUS48 KWNS 280850
SWOD48
SPC AC 280849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

....DISCUSSION...
By late next week, the upper-level trough in the Northeast will be
moving into the Canadian Maritimes. In its wake, high pressure at
the surface will build into the Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley. This will
push the surface front farther south each day through the weekend.
In the West, cyclonic flow will tend to weaken over time. The
surface front will be pushed up against the Rockies. Model guidance
shows progressively lower amounts of buoyancy south of the front in
the Southeast, likely due to repeated days of convection. This
activity will also become farther removed from stronger shear. Winds
with some upslope component with weak/modest westerlies aloft could
allow for some severe risk near the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains, but the overall weak shear and potential for sequential
convective days leading to a poor quality airmass suggest the threat
is like to remain marginal. Predictability of organized severe
weather remains low.

...Wendt.. 07/28/2025

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