Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 28 2025 07:34:58 ACUS03 KWNS 280733 SWODY3 SPC AC 280732 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI VICINITY...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in the Mid Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity and within parts of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England on Wednesday. ....Parts of Mid-Atlantic into southern New England... Rich low-level moisture is expected to remain within the regions ahead of a cold front. The timing of the front is a point of uncertainty, especially for northern New England, but areas southwest of there should see some amount of surface heating into the upper 80s/low 90s F. 40-50 kts of effective shear will mean supercell structures are likely. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit storm intensity somewhat. Coverage of damaging winds is also not certain given a primarily cellular mode. ....Mid Missouri/Mississippi Vicinity... The uncertainty level in this portion of the forecast is moderate to high. Current model guidance suggests that some convection will be ongoing in eastern Nebraska. How intense this activity will be is not certain given the generally unfavorable time of day. Shear will also be stronger north of the surface boundary progressing southward through the day. Given the expected presence of an MCV, there is some potential for this feature to promote additional activity ahead of or along its outflow during the afternoon. Moderate to strong buoyancy and limited shear (perhaps around 20 kts) would support a marginal threat for damaging winds. ....Northern/central High Plains... Continued modest moisture up against the terrain will again lead to widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg appears possible. Shear will be stronger with northern extent. Even so, upper-level winds will be weak and storms may end up rather disorganized as a result. Coupled with potential cloud cover and early initiation limiting potential for stronger storms, severe probabilities will be withheld this outlook. ....Northwest... Models are in agreement that a weak shortwave trough will move northward into the Northwest during the afternoon. PWATs appear high enough to support scattered storm coverage with this feature. Effective shear will likely be around 20-25 kts with values around 30 kts close to the Cascades. Inverted-v profiles would support isolated severe gusts. Given how weak the shortwave trough is in model guidance, predictability of the timing of the trough is too low for severe probabilities. ...Wendt.. 07/28/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .