Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1819
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 28 2025 06:35:18

ACUS11 KWNS 280635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280634=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-280800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1819
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Areas affected...parts of IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 280634Z - 280800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Localized severe gusts may persist for a couple more
hours, but should diminish along a weakening MCS across Iowa.

DISCUSSION...The large MCS arcing mainly over northern into central
IA has still produced recent measured strong to severe gusts of
50-60 mph. Although deep convective cores have become confined to
northwest IA, trailing the large-scale convective outflow by 20-30
miles, a feed of very steep mid-level lapse rates upstream should
maintain strong storm cores through the pre-dawn hours across
western IA. MCS weakening trends have been well advertised across
the suite of evening guidance and appear likely to continue. But
given the presence upper 70s surface dew points along the MO Valley
through much of southern IA, potential exists for strong to marginal
severe gusts to persist for a couple more hours.

...Grams/Hart.. 07/28/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4809sAtK5UXQyxLWEpE-XXHQ3v5yxmlw1cZJtSEmIUHcOsi23xkZKQfr3PUzSdeeZhrpkcgPM=
m5neV_vLpgOnibxCuo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   42539600 42309529 42099464 41979424 42069357 42399241
            42519175 42219122 41859119 41399166 41119266 41149394
            41119518 41489587 41979635 42319652 42669637 42539600=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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