Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 28 2025 01:03:38 ACUS01 KWNS 280102 SWODY1 SPC AC 280100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ....SUMMARY... Severe-wind producing storms remain a threat through tonight across the Upper Mississippi Valley, with more isolated strong storms possible over the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts will remain a concern for eastern North Carolina for a few more hours. ....Synopsis and Discussion... Surface ridging persists across the central and eastern CONUS, with multiple mid-level perturbations traversing the ridge and supporting episodic strong to severe thunderstorms from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Across the Upper MS Valley, a loosely organized MCS with intense embedded multicells and supercells, with a history of all severe hazards, continues to sag southward. The MCS line orientation roughly aligns with the mean wind and deep-layer shear vector, which appears to be the main inhibiting factor for a higher-end severe threat. Nonetheless, given 4000-6000 J/kg MLCAPE preceding these storms, additional severe gusts appear likely, and a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out wherever mesovortices or embedded supercell mesocyclones can materialize. To the southwest, along a diffuse frontal boundary, isolated storms continue to percolate in intensity. It is not clear how long these storms will persist. The current thinking is that these storms may pose an isolated threat for all severe hazards for at least a couple more hours, before nocturnal cooling and MLCINH increase. More isolated storms may persist from central MT or southwestern Manitoba as they approach the northern Plains. Any storms that do sustain themselves should be isolated, though the presence of strong instability and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear suggest that severe hail/wind could accompany any storm that can mature. It is possible that an MCS could evolve over eastern MT into western ND a couple of hours before the 12Z timeframe, which might involve a higher concentration of severe winds. However, overall confidence in MCS organization before 12Z is low at this time. Multicells sagging southward across NC should wane in intensity tonight. However, for at least a couple more hours, enough instability may be in place to support a damaging gust or two. ...Squitieri.. 07/28/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .