Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1816
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 27 2025 23:34:36

ACUS11 KWNS 272334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272333=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-280130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1816
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Areas affected...Northern Nebraska and South-central South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 272333Z - 280130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop early this evening
from parts of north-central Nebraska into south-central South
Dakota. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1008 mb low over
south-central South Dakota. A thermal axis currently extends
southward from the low into central Nebraska, along which
temperatures are in the mid to upper 90s F. To the east of the
thermal axis, surface dewpoints are generally in the mid 70s to the
lower 80s F. This is contributing to moderate to strong instability,
with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4500 J/kg range. Multiple
cells are developing near to the thermal axis. These cells are
expected to develop into thunderstorms and move eastward across
northern Nebraska and southern South Dakota early this evening. This
area is located near the southern edge of an upper-level jet, which
is helping to create moderate deep-layer shear over much of the
region. The instability and shear should be sufficient for an
isolated severe threat for several hours this evening. Large hail
and wind damage will be the primary threats.

...Broyles/Mosier.. 07/27/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5YCoZ1OeJLOZcQrxQhhevC-kaqHTJXI9ObjVMSOcW9nd4_0flbeBy3EdyYHZB9BfTrYG7W9WU=
XCHgs0RyQ7VgiuQuyU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   44300010 44579954 44589904 44489866 44119843 43569846
            42859884 42089958 41860009 41840069 42040128 42490141
            43230114 44300010=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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