Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 27 2025 23:10:56

AWUS01 KWNH 272310
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-280310-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0814
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
710 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Areas affected...southern New Mexico, far west Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 272310Z - 280310Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms are impacting
sensitive/low-lying areas across southern New Mexico and adjacent
west Texas currently.  A few instances of flash flooding are
likely.

Discussion...Low-level southeasterly flow has aided in weak
advection of a very moist airmass into southern New Mexico and
vicinity, fostering thunderstorm development especially in
terrain-favored, mountainous areas.  Weak steering flow aloft has
enabled relatively slow storm speeds, while 1 inch PW values
(higher with eastward extent in southeastern NM) has enabled
development of a few spots of rain rates exceeding 1 inch/hr.=20
These rates have unfortunately fallen in/near burn scars across
south-central New Mexico, with runoff and flash flooding expected
to develop in the near future.

Ongoing convective trends are expected to continue, with spots of
heavier rainfall (and 1+ inch/hr rain rates) continuing to fall
beneath deep, isolated to scattered convection across the
discussion area.  A few additional areas of flash flooding are
possible in this regime - especially near burn scars and other
sensitive, terrain-favored areas.  Storms are mostly diurnally
driven, with a decrease in storm coverage (and attendant flash
flood threat) expected after around 03Z/9p MDT.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!60sEfzyHsomScKvIy3V52zsWxurxbx_8hoewIV9Td-JwrzEM4nifshmYh7Egoa47RqP3=
nVoMs2_GQ4jGsCMZJu7Qg0I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   35250409 34910366 33310397 32060538 31330551=20
            31770668 31770854 32280909 33130858 34030677=20
            35010501=20

=3D =3D =3D
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