Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1814
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 27 2025 22:43:10

ACUS11 KWNS 272243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272242=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-280015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1814
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Areas affected...Southeast VA into northeast NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 272242Z - 280015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat will spread southward through the
early evening.

DISCUSSION...An extensive area of convection and composite outflow
is moving southward across southern VA early this evening. Within
this large area of convection, a few embedded clusters have
accelerated southeastward and produced reports of wind damage.=20

South of the composite outflow, a sea breeze boundary is moving
westward across far southeast VA and northeast NC. South of the
outflow and west of the sea breeze, temperatures remain rather hot,
with MLCAPE still in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Moderate MLCAPE also
persists within the very moist environment to the cool side of the
sea breeze. Effective shear is marginally supportive of organized
convection, though weak low-level flow will continue to result in a
tendency for outflow to outpace convection in some areas.=20

Localized corridors of wind damage may spread southward through the
early evening, especially near boundary intersections, and also
where convection is able to keep pace with the outflow.

...Dean/Mosier.. 07/27/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4pRsq0T6BBNn8fC3hjdSZgTEctLkYcuHKb7kPg9_sY74v2jzbdem27o9pp6sTMduK-wSkPF9D=
b9aUmYxcWB6yfBaHj8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   36727951 37038028 37398011 37667978 37607917 37257695
            36817591 36427576 36087594 36157748 36297844 36587906
            36727951=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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