Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 27 2025 22:04:22

AWUS01 KWNH 272202
FFGMPD
VAZ000-280100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0812
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
602 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Areas affected...southeastern Virginia/Tidewater region

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272200Z - 280100Z

Summary...An uptick in flash flood potential is expected across
populated areas of southeastern Virginia over the next 2-3 hours.

Discussion...Latest radar mosaic imagery depicts a mature,
progressive convective complex migrating southeastward across
central/east-central Virginia (including the Richmond area)
currently.  In addition to this convective complex, areas of
thunderstorms were forming along inland-advancing sea breeze near
Williamsburg and Norfolk that should merge with the advancing MCS
to prolong heavy rainfall in a few areas.  The storms are in an
abundantly moist/unstable pre-convective environment (3500 J/kg
MLCAPE, 2.3+ inch PW values) that is supporting efficient rainfall
processes beneath the storms.  The anticipated mergers of cells
with the advancing MCS should promote local 2 inch/hr rain rates
at times across southeastern Virginia over the next couple hours
(thorugh 00Z/8p EDT).

These rain rates should fall on sensitive/urbanized ground
conditions that will support excessive runoff.  FFG thresholds
near the urban centers are at around 1.5 inch/hr and could be
exceeded on a localized basis as storms move through.  The bulk of
the flash flood threat should peak with the main convective
complex and lessen somewhat after the line as passed (from
northwest to southeast) due to low-level stabilization processes.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7JXXitrC2HhutQ_Hc0KRAa1D0XaMSMebC9koLAMV4C6qnARN9d1SVR4sTWdV6p-SbXAa=
MrNWpX6M4cXHQWHU1KHaP5A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37827753 37517623 36977573 36587575 36637715=20
            37177796=20

=3D =3D =3D
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