Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1812
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 27 2025 21:25:40

ACUS11 KWNS 272125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272125=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-272200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1812
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0425 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Areas affected...Northeastern South Dakota...Western and Central
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon=20

Valid 272125Z - 272200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue to develop over the
next couple of hours from northeastern South Dakota into western and
central Minnesota. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary
threats. Weather watch issuance will be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a small cluster of
strong to severe thunderstorms over far western Minnesota. This
activity is being supported by a subtle shortwave trough, evident on
water vapor imagery. The storms are located to the northeast of a
bullseye of very strong instability. Across northeastern South
Dakota, MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 5000 to 6000 J/kg range.
Further east, the airmass is less unstable. As low-level flow
increases late this afternoon and early this evening, convective
coverage will gradually increase. In addition to the instability,
regional WSR-88D VWPs show moderate deep-layer shear across this
unstable airmass. 0-6 km shear is estimated by the RAP to be in the
35 to 40 knot range, which will likely support supercell
development. Supercells will have potential for large hail and wind
damage. A brief tornado will be possible with most of intense of
storms. In addition, an organized line segment will also be
possible. This mode would be more favorable for damaging wind gusts.

...Broyles/Mosier.. 07/27/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6nTs3uyuhGszDOrkQeltGqqi6Q0x-a3pYw5_mdz2JZ69w3fR5YT3Sy5rHt-lbHJs2eK5OIcpF=
52nom7B21MtgV-MbD4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   46129592 46269508 46209410 45939378 45509390 44359557
            43639603 43099661 42879752 42999800 43709852 44759883
            45359839 45889704 46129592=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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