Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 27 2025 08:29:04

ACUS48 KWNS 270828
SWOD48
SPC AC 270827

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

....DISCUSSION...
The general upper-level pattern over the next week will feature a
trough in the Northeast, a ridge over much of the southern U.S. and
Plains, and a weak trough off the West Coast. The Northeastern
trough will weaken with time, before moving out of the region around
next weekend.  Models eventually develop a shortwave trough in the
West, but this signal has been inconsistent in the past several
runs. At the surface, high pressure will build into the Great Lakes
and Northeast. This will progressively push a cold front farther
south and west with time.

While some severe risk is possible along the cold front, shear and
buoyancy will be diminished with each successive day. With the front
pushing modest moisture into the Rockies, convection is possible
each day next week. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur
with this activity, but weak shear beneath the upper ridge makes it
unclear where the most intense storms would be. Furthermore,
repeated days of convection will at some point adversely affect the
quality of the low-level airmass. Predictability remains too low for
highlights.

...Wendt.. 07/27/2025

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