Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1807
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 27 2025 08:23:35

ACUS11 KWNS 270823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270823=20
MNZ000-271000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1807
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Areas affected...northwest/north-central MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 547...

Valid 270823Z - 271000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 547
continues.

SUMMARY...An increasingly marginal/isolated severe wind threat is
anticipated through mid-morning. Downstream Severe Thunderstorm
Watch is unlikely, unless renewed intensification can occur.

DISCUSSION...The ongoing cluster across northwest MN had earlier
produced several measured severe gusts across a portion of the Red
River Valley, centered on the greater Grand Forks area. Early
evening MPAS-NSSL/GSL runs have correlated well with the pivot and
change in orientation of the cluster over the past couple hours,
much more aligned relative to recent HRRR/RRFS runs. Overall
intensification appears to have trended down though with shrinking
areal extent of the deep convective core and general IR cloud-top
warming/relaxing radar reflectivity gradient. But with 40-50 kt
mid-level southwesterlies in MVX VWP data, it is possible that
restrengthening could occur amid MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg still
present into north-central MN. Still, large-scale ascent appears to
be focused to the west/northwest ahead of a larger MCS in western
ND. This suggests the MN portion of the severe threat will probably
remain marginal/fairly isolated through/beyond daybreak.

...Grams.. 07/27/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6Q4WGyP5IkYmyU-VaCr8MJjlEn66szVOjqNXcJ-1QdJ2KnmBlrF2tDh-mB4sK9xRQlyoCZL2Q=
YRadKK1S5pcSIaswQA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   47879636 48229595 48199498 48219400 48149327 47659303
            47299291 46849305 46579410 46719555 47029651 47879636=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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