Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1805
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 27 2025 06:11:29

ACUS11 KWNS 270609
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270609=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-270745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1805
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Areas affected...eastern ND and northern MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 547...

Valid 270609Z - 270745Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 547
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat from strong to sporadic severe gusts
should persist through dawn across eastern North Dakota and northern
Minnesota. Southward expansion of WW 547 and/or an additional Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...A trio of measured severe gusts from 65-70 mph have
occurred with a northwest/southeast-oriented cluster that has
progressed into eastern ND. With flanking convective development to
its southeast, an orientation pivot may continue and potentially
yield more of a north/south alignment in the next few hours. This
emerging MCS should progress through the instability axis that
extends east across northern MN. Enhanced mid-level westerlies
within and in the wake of this cluster, per the BIS VWP time-series,
suggests it may remain organized for the next several hours. The 21Z
GSL-MPAS and 00Z NSSL-MPAS runs appear to be reasonably handling the
ongoing cluster and are more aggressive with longevity of the
damaging wind threat relative to recent HRRR/RRFS runs.

...Grams/Hart.. 07/27/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8x4kQ3BTfAbC60yoR6dttt4A8YHHz0dmI3yghiy9Bsa-dQcK3X1zK-dx6FYgaeV2Ku9mGLuqL=
fmSs9eI_lQQfkG8LGs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   47619912 47719949 48089922 48619756 48799685 48439394
            47859308 47249298 47169305 46869338 46699467 46669574
            46719675 47619912=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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