Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1804
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 27 2025 04:29:32

ACUS11 KWNS 270428
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270428=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-270600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1804
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Montana into northwest North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 545...

Valid 270428Z - 270600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 545
continues.

SUMMARY...An MCS with a history of producing severe winds is
expected to spread into northwest/western North Dakota through the
early morning hours. Downstream watch issuance is being considered,
though confidence in MCS intensity is waning to some degree.

DISCUSSION...The MCS moving across northeast MT has a history of
producing 50-56 knot winds within the past few hours. However, more
recent radar imagery from KGGW shows the MCS has become outflow
dominant with a decrease in lightning activity noted as well. This
casts some uncertainty onto how intense the MCS will be in the
coming hours as it pushes into northwest ND where inhibition is
slowly increasing with the onset of nocturnal cooling. Reflectivity
composites and GOES IR imagery both show strong embedded updrafts
within this line, and rich low-level moisture remains in place
immediately downstream. Recent radar trends also show the
deeper/stronger convective cores developing slightly southward
towards the better buoyancy/moisture, hinting that the MCS may
propagate along the buoyancy axis in place across west-central ND.
As such, there remains some potential for a severe wind threat with
this MCS as it moves east over the coming hours, though the
magnitude/coverage of severe winds appears uncertain at this time.
Regardless, watch issuance is being considered for northwest/western
ND.

...Moore.. 07/27/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_uVppYZxuj_0i_ijezJGebKmaxz1e2RZZkQRpRVuRYlXgunMycjIj04kXqtendLINuYeAERsg=
_TZ24PkILsIFfLs8GM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   47100676 47300643 47720640 48080642 48340653 48670643
            48760300 48710268 48550246 47640240 47060256 46820285
            46690328 46660400 46840670 46960685 47100676=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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