Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1803
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 27 2025 03:59:35

ACUS11 KWNS 270359
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270359=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-270600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1803
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the eastern Dakotas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546...

Valid 270359Z - 270600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to spread
north and east into eastern North Dakota and northeast South Dakota
through the overnight hours. Downstream watch issuance and/or
expansions are expected in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar trends show initially discrete cells
from southern ND and central SD transitioning into semi-organize
convective clusters/lines. Recent severe wind reports have been
noted with one such cluster moving across central SD within the past
hour. This activity is slowly moving into a more capped environment
with diminishing deep-layer wind shear; however, cold-pool
propagation into an otherwise buoyant environment should help
maintain this activity into the early morning hours with an
attendant threat for severe winds.=20

Further north, convection building across southern ND is expected to
continue spreading north/northeast within a zone of weak isentropic
ascent between 925-850 mb. This zone is co-located with a regional
buoyancy maximum across east/southeast ND and where stronger
mid-level flow is supporting effective shear values of around 35-40
knots. As such, a mix of strong to severe clusters and embedded
supercells is likely heading into the early morning hours.
Downstream watch issuance is expected given the potential for severe
gusts and large hail.

...Moore.. 07/27/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!66OJFV9NpxhzYb3sP-U04ZyXqpyOUpIKyUnyCyx3521GiCnrRA3sD0rGaLJEvrgpKrCdg8nwQ=
QLpWJFXx9PQRNvnkOE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   44609957 45149914 45549901 45899910 46159919 46309958
            46340007 46300042 46250081 46290102 46430119 46670118
            47310072 47630023 47889937 47899874 47809815 47689777
            47459728 47089685 46809666 46429656 46069653 45169660
            44899670 44609688 44419722 44249769 44169806 44169865
            44229909 44409941 44529954 44609957=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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