Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1802
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 27 2025 02:43:04

ACUS11 KWNS 270243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270242=20
MTZ000-270415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1802
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0942 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 545...

Valid 270242Z - 270415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 545
continues.

SUMMARY...A localized corridor of significant (70-85 mph) winds may
be emerging across northeast Montana for the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...KGGW velocity imagery shows a localized surge in a
maturing MCS that is the result of a recent squall-line/supercell
merger. This merger is likely the initiating mechanism for a
somewhat prolonged (1-2 hour) surge of severe - to potentially
significant - wind gusts downstream across northeast MT. Recent
observations from the 00 UTC GGW sounding and the KGGW VWP show very
steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer wind shear for
MCS maintenance, including very strong 0-3 km BWD values on the
order of 40 knots. Consequently, given this environment and the
recent convective trends, the potential for wind gusts as high as
70-85 mph appears to be increasing.

...Moore.. 07/27/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7WpjoNjbHO81uYgrDlmP4A8fy9VdHhQohkSp66vSd5DEqWHCCtI6mXplJgLBO-ofI-1msM-X_=
0aintAMWaWARb6s69E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GGW...

LAT...LON   47450749 47650755 47960763 48120761 48690577 48630534
            48490507 48160488 47950490 47780497 47650506 47600533
            47450749=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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