Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1800
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 27 2025 00:57:39

ACUS11 KWNS 270056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270056=20
MTZ000-270300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1800
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 545...

Valid 270056Z - 270300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 545
continues.

SUMMARY...A developing squall line will likely see intensification
over the next 1-2 hours as it moves into a more buoyant air mass
downstream across northeast Montana.

DISCUSSION...Regional velocity imagery from KTFX and KBLX show cold
pool consolidation underway across central MT as a squall line
slowly organizes. Despite the anemic reflectivity presentation over
the past 20 minutes, GOES 1-minute IR imagery shows multiple deep
convective updrafts embedded within the line, and recent lighting
data shows an uptick in lightning flashes with strong clustering
around developing updrafts - indicative of an overall
intensification trend. This trend should continue for the next few
hours as the line continues to move east/northeast into an
increasingly buoyant air mass (downstream MLCAPE is upwards of
1000-2000 J/kg over northeast MT). Additionally, easterly flow
through the lowest 2 km should help maintain a balanced cold pool
and promote squall line longevity. Consequently, the potential for
severe winds should increase through the evening hours across
northeast MT.=20

Further downstream ahead of the line, a pair of supercells continue
to slowly mature with MRMS data showing increasing probability of
severe hail. These cells will continue to migrate east/southeast
towards the regional MLCAPE axis, which should promote storm
longevity and the potential for further intensification. Based on
recent vertical ice data and the downstream environment, large hail,
possibly between 1 to 2 inches, appears possible before these cells
merge with the approaching squall line.

...Moore.. 07/27/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!67IRSaKclvl-MSJzu4XuViZWj-yq8ygRX4VVritvFGYxu6MOB2HzMqHMT4_2MMo1VlpoiUZw_=
j5b9BlS2j56IMXOTtY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   47110436 46360835 46430859 46680868 47170896 47530927
            47650930 47790924 48890592 48880533 48740495 48540469
            48270446 47740423 47390418 47110436=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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