Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1799
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 27 2025 00:17:04

ACUS11 KWNS 270016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270016=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-270145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1799
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Areas affected...portions of extreme northeast Colorado into western
Nebraska and far south-central South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 544...

Valid 270016Z - 270145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 544
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe gusts will remain a concern over the next several
hours with an eastward-advancing MCS.

DISCUSSION...An MCS is organizing over western NE, where several
sub-severe gusts have been measured. Over the next several hours,
this MCS cold-pool-driven MCS will propagate eastward amid 3000+
J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear is not overly strong, and MLCINH is
beginning to increase across the central Plains. Nonetheless, the
25+ kt effective bulk shear vectors in place are roughly normal to
the MCS leading line, so continued organization is not out of the
question. Should the MCS continue to intensify, severe gusts may
become more probable before the MCS becomes increasingly elevated
with strengthening MLCINH.

...Squitieri.. 07/27/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!--nTt0OkmHakkw1owoPUbvkWasqP7xSfne79t_Ksqe4vTfM5RDDLuJ_tfoiAI2NpKh9cujwUx=
Efhnq5HUbM9GL0jRqQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...

LAT...LON   40590244 42110214 43070154 43390090 43430033 43340011
            42849993 41960009 41010032 40610057 40440130 40460184
            40590244=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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