Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1797
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 26 2025 23:01:04

ACUS11 KWNS 262300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262300=20
PAZ000-270030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1797
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0600 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Areas affected...portions of western into southern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 262300Z - 270030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts may occur over the next few hours.
The overall severe threat should remain isolated.

DISCUSSION...An MCS has been steadily organizing over western PA
over the past couple of hours. This MCS will continue to propagate
east-southeastward amid a buoyant airmass, characterized by over
2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, deep-layer westerly flow around the
upper ridge is promoting roughly 35 kts of effective speed shear,
oriented roughly perpendicular to the MCS leading-line. This may
foster continued organization of the MCS, with a few strong,
damaging wind gusts possible. The best chance for damaging gusts
will be with storm interactions between cells embedded in the MCS
with those in the free warm sector. However, severe gusts should
remain more sparse, so a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not
currently expected.

...Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/26/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4BUNxFTAH8biW0tGHjQV5a3WUOSWRTDE6m9PVAjGsg2adgywU1Aa_bzKMo6NDp5IYOmS7Xaxt=
2vzK7VuIQj4gp2Ih80$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON   41347971 41277862 40957747 40617675 40237645 39977659
            39867701 39827771 39897836 39967892 40107944 40247970
            40507990 41347971=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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