Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1796 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 26 2025 22:35:32 ACUS11 KWNS 262235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262234=20 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-270030- Mesoscale Discussion 1796 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0534 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Areas affected...Northern Wyoming into southeast Montana and the western Dakotas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20 Valid 262234Z - 270030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An uptick in convection is noted across northern WY into southeast MT. Trends are being monitored for the potential development of an organized cluster/line later this evening. Timing remains uncertain, but watch issuance is possible if/when this cluster begins to emerge and pose severe wind threat. DISCUSSION...Increasing ascent ahead of a mid-level wave over central WY is evident in recent GOES imagery across northern WY into southeast MT. Within the past hour or so, the number of shallow convective cores, as well as the depth/intensity of existing cores, has begun to increase as ascent attendant to the wave begins to overspread a modestly buoyant air mass in place across the northern High Plains. Over the next couple of hours, coverage of initially cellular, high-based thunderstorms should increase before gradual cold pool amalgamation begins to occur. It remains unclear if cold pool consolidation will be sufficient for the development of a more prominent convective cluster/line, but recent CAM guidance suggests that this could be the initiation zone for a more prolonged MCS that moves northeast into the western Dakotas later this evening. Regardless, in the short term, the high-based nature of the storms within a deeply mixed environment should support the potential for strong to severe downburst winds. A few instances of large hail are also possible within initially discrete cells given increasing deep-layer winds shear with the approach of the upper wave. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance is possible later this evening if/when an organized cluster or line begins to emerge. ...Moore/Mosier.. 07/26/2025 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4X9W50mfUXA0eikYMhAdOUGDeDkzajdnL6P4ITgUIdFrMG-v8GEvm7T8LDVngElqbJSTpn5VQ= 7CkUFBKs47_O5sss1M$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 43800557 43610633 43640712 44100783 44590804 44920795 46470447 46510360 46300307 45820272 45360264 45010267 44580294 44330326 43800557=20 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .